Monday, December 19, 2016

Who should close in 2017?

By: Joshua Reese

One of the things the 2016 Houston Astros did well, was getting lots of different guys saves. Three "closers" had 10 or more saves last season, and while it's nice everyone had a chance to lock down the job, nobody did.

Luke Gregerson started off the season in the ninth but he faltered. Ace reliever Will Harris took over had some early success but like Gregerson, he also started to slip. Ken Giles the team's top offseason acquisition would get the final stretch, but despite his electric arm even he struggled.

As a team, the Astros converted 44 saves, even more than the season before when they went to the playoffs.

The problem is they had 20 blown saves, which is the 13th worst in the majors.

The Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles, Washinton Nationals, and the Chicago Cubs were the four teams with the fewest blown saves last season - spoiler alert all four made it to the postseason.

Blown saves are just a part of the game, your closer is going to have a rough game every once in a while. But lockdown closers just will have a lot less of them than others - see the 2016 Astros.

So the question is, who's closing on the Astros in 2017?

Unless the team goes out and lands a prime closer, which they still can. In spring training A.J. Hinch will likely have a few different guys to choose from.

Giles, Gregerson, and Harris are likely the favorites to land the job out of the gate. But there should be three more names added to this eventual competition.

Lance McCullers, Christopher Devenski, and Michael Feliz should also get a look at the job.

McCullers is pie in the sky and while he probably could be very effective in the role the Astros don't seem to have any interest in moving him out of a starting role despite arm concerns.

Devenski has earned a larger role on the team but the question is how large of a role. He was great last year and when the Astros needed an out he was the guy Hinch turned to.

While Devenski is consistent and solid, Feliz is more unpolished but he has a lot of electricity in his arm and showed a lot of flashes of being a great reliever.

With so much being invested in making the 2017 Houston Astros so much better, it's time to think beyond the retreads of Giles, Gregerson, and Harris.

Michael Feliz should be given the chance to spread his wings and prove that he's the next big thing in closing. Standing at 6'4, Feliz just looks like a closer on the mound.

His upper 90's fastball is hard to square up and his wicked slider is damn near unhittable as batters only were able to get a .163 batting average against it.

While Feliz may have just about the same electric stuff that Giles has (ended the season as closer), my trust goes to the bigger rightie.

Last year it was pretty easy to tell when Feliz was on or off, either he was throwing 98-99 and blowing people away or he was throwing 95-97 and getting hit.

Giles was more of a gamble and harder to figure out, consistently he was the same pitcher throwing the ball, just some days he'd get hit and you never really knew why. On top of that whenever someone would reach base for whatever reason, things just seemed to go downhill from there.

Feliz also had is problems but it seemed more manageable in terms of maybe he just needed more rest that day or something while for Giles it seems more random.

If you look through Feliz and Giles game log. You'll see that when Giles gave up a run, it usually meant a bad week for him,  Feliz on the other seemed to bounce back more often after bad outings.

Feliz like Devenski last year pitched in a lot of "dirty work" games, either when the team was trailing or in extra innings. He may have been a little less consistent than Devenski but it's easy to think Feliz will continue getting better.

Just because the Astros gave up a lot to get Giles does not mean he should just be given the spot.

The pressure of closing on a playoff team will their form you into a diamond or crush you into dust. I know for me I'd much rather see what Feliz can do in the ninth, then any other option that's currently on the team.

Friday, December 9, 2016

Now the Chris Sale is off the market, who else should the Astros target

The Houston Astros missed out on the Chris Sale sweepstakes as the Chicago White Sox traded him over to the Boston Red Sox.

With starting pitching still on the agenda, not landing Sale, doesn't mean the Astros are now out of options.

Sale might have been the goal for every team, but there are still plenty of top of the rotation starters still waiting for new homes.

Below are three "aces" general manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff should target.

1) Minnesota Twins right-hander Ervin Santana (33 years old)

Santana is still an above average pitcher plus he's under team control through 2019 making 14 million a year. When he's on his A-game he can lead a staff, but he's better off being a really good second or third starter.

Another good thing about Santana is that you certainly aren't giving up Lance McCullers or Alex Bregman. The Twins would probably return phone calls if you offered AAA outfielder Derek Fisher, right-hander Jandel Gustave and a player to be named later.

2) Oakland Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray (27 years old)

He had a down year last year, but since breaking into the majors he's been a stud, from 2013-2015 he had 2.88 ERA which was 10th best in baseball.

Gray is just now entering arbitration so he'll be under team control for a while so he's going to be costly. It won't cost you "untouchable" prospects, but major league middle infielder Tony Kemp and reliever Michael Feliz, plus A-ball outfielder Daz Cameron could be enough to make a deal.

3) Tampa Rays Chris Archer (28 years old)

Rumored to be moved this offseason, the only problem is reports say that the price tag for Archer is pretty high.

Archer has been a top pitcher in A.L., he's just been stuck on bad Rays team, in 2016 his ERA was just a touch over 4, but in years prior he's been on the cusp of being a dominant pitcher.

With Archer under control through the 2021 season, the Rays are probably holding out for a Sale like deal and If the Astros are to get involved this is where it might cost an "untouchable".

If you want Archer; Bregman or George Springer, AA third baseman J.D. Davis plus last years number one pick pitcher Forrest Whitley could be enough to start a dialog.

Options are out there for the Astros, it just depends on what is the price Luhnow is willing to pay, what is too high?

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Hey, remember me?

General manager Jeff Luhnow Saturday afternoon added another piece to his 2017 ball club by bringing back, old friend, outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran on a reported one-year deal worth 16 million dollars.

Houston Astros' fans may have spent the last decade plus booing Beltran every time he came to the plate, but now none of that matters anymore. He came back and that's the only thing that counts.

At nearly 40 years old, Beltran has proven that he still has "it" hell last season he was an all-star for the ninth time in his career. While his days of stealing 20-30 bases are long gone, it's not out of the question that he could crank out 30 home runs in 2017 with an extra short porch in left field.

It's no telling what position Beltran will play when the roster and roles are set in spring training. But if the team uses him as their DH (which is likely), he'll easily become the best in the Astros short American League history.

Also by adding Beltran he's now the fifth player added by Luhnow this offseason with postseason experience - yes Charlie Morton has pitched in the playoffs - an Astros team with the right combination of young talent and big-time vets, it could lift the team from the fringe of the playoffs to a deep postseason run.

The Chicago Cubs gave Astros the blueprint, it was the additions of veterans Jon Lester and Dexter Flower mixing with their youth that put them over the top.

In 2004 Beltran nearly single handily carried the Astros to a world series appearance, but ultimately fell short. Now 12 years later and his career closer to the end than the beginning, Beltran will get a chance to finish what he started in Houston so many, many, years ago.

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Chris Sale is the gem of the offseason and he'll be hard to snag

One of the biggest trade targets in baseball this offseason is White Sox ace Chris Sale.

In seven years with the Sox, he's been in the Cy Young conversation each of the last five years. He's truly considered one of the best not just in the American league but in all of baseball and he wants out of town. Last season Sale even went as far as cutting up his team's jersey before a start, just hours before the trade deadline. I mean if that's not a plea for "get me the hell out of here" I don't know what is.

The problem with landing the crazy good lefty is he's under team control for a few more seasons and since he won't be a free agent till 2020 the cost could be epic.

Everyone knows Sale's resume, he's a true ace. Since 2012 only Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and, David Price have a higher pitchers WAR than Sale.

Jeff Luhnow and his staff have pulled off plenty of deals before but those moves are Minnows compared to the Whale that is Sale.

Getting the lefty ace will no doubt have to be painful for the Astros.

A good reference for Luhnow and his staff to go by could be the deal the Rangers made for Cole Hamels a few years back.

However, there are a few key differences and they do not favor Astros.

The Phillies who traded Hamels and White Sox who will be trading Sale are in different positions. The Phillies were looking to add to the minors and rebuild their depth. The White Sox are pretty close to being in playoff contention and will want major league ready talent.

Plus the ages between the two are quite different, Hamels was 31 at the time of the trade while Sale will only be 27 if/when he gets moved.

Hamels netted four prospects included the 3rd, 5th, and 13th best prospects from the Rangers farm.

The Astros cost could be a little higher and likely to include starting pitcher Lance McCullers or third basemen Alex Bregman just to get the White Sox brass to even return their phone calls.

This is a package that could get the White Sox attention. Pitcher Francis Martes (#1), outfielder Derek Fisher (#5), third basemen Colin Moran (#7) and, Bregman.

The Astros 1st, 5th, and 7th best prospects, plus Bregman would be enough to wow any general manager.

It might be a little steep but if you want to snag the prize of the offseason season going bold is the way to go.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Dodgers fire sale, Astros gain?

It's being reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers need to shed cash, with the highest payroll in baseball they need to cut around a 100 million in the next few years. 

The question is with the Dodgers many, many, massive contracts is there anyone the Houston Astros would be willing to pick up.

Of course, teams would want Cy Young regular Clayton Kershaw but that won't happen and no one is trading for outfielder Andre Ethier or veteran pitcher Brandon McCarthy.

So who else is left that the Astros would be interested in?

1) Right-hander - Kenta Maeda
The Astros originally made a run for him before the Dodgers signed him and he had a good rookie season. He wasn't perfect but he looked pretty good and he's under contract till 2023 with a very team friendly contract.

2) 1st/DH - Adrian Gonzalez
He's a good hitter and he's been one for a while. The real problem is he is making a lot of money but if the team is willing to take it all, maybe it would not cost them as much in terms of prospects.

3) Left-hander - Alex Wood
A very good pitcher for the Atlanta Braves, but his tenure with the Dodgers a little up and down. The Astros have a few left-handed starters already, but he could make a nice pick up if he returns to form.

Gonzalez might be a little tougher of a fit then Wood or Maeda, but for his bat, manager A.J. Hinch would find a way to put him in the lineup.

Saturday, November 26, 2016

The Astros offseason has been great, but it could be better!

By: Joshua Reese

Since the end of the world series, Houston Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and his staff wasted no time in making the Houston Astros a better team.

On the cusp of a playoff run in 2016, Luhnow swapped some of the inconsistent offensive weapons from that team and upgraded them, getting supercharged versions.

The catcher position was improved by swapping Jason Castro for New York Yankees power-hitting backstop Brian McCann.

Colby Rasmus was a postseason hero in 2015 but spent most of 2016 injured and was ineffective. The Astros went out and signed a carbon copy of Rasmus, but one that just doesn't strikeout as much in Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Josh Reddick.

The team even added a Nori Aoki a high-contact outfielder through a waiver claim and signed a starting pitcher in right-hander Charlie Morton.

By far this is the most aggressive the team has been in years.

After wondering for years, will the Astros spend when the time comes? We finally know, yes they will.

To date, the Astros have added roughly around 30 million to next season's roster.

The question is will the team try and land the crushing blow in the remainder of the offseason and snag themselves a top of the rotation ace and a top flight closer.

Morton is fine, but in his career, he's been just barely over a replacement level pitcher with a 7.6 WAR in nine-ish seasons of baseball.

The free agent pitching market is pretty weak this year and while Morton may have been one of the best, the trade market this time of year always starts to heat up.

Names like former Cy young winner Diamondbacks Zack Greinke has been rumored to be available, along with top pitchers in the Athletics Sonny Gray and WhiteSox Chris Sale.

Some deals might be harder to pull off than others, i.e. Greinke is owed 32 million until he's 38 years, and while I applaud the Astros willingness to spend, taking on that contract might be pure insanity.

Along with snagging a true ace, finally getting a closer would be very helpful in making the Astros a serious contender in 2017.

The Astros were the only team in the majors last season to have three relievers get 10 or more saves. Ken Giles, Luke Gregerson, and Will Harris all had a crack at one of baseball's most prestigious positions, but none could hold on to the job as each ended up faltering. Giles may have the stuff to be a closer but the Astros can't bank on him figuring it out.

The good news is, unlike the starting pitching market, there are plenty of free agent closers waiting for good homes.

Greg Holland, Mark Melancon, and Aroldis Chapman are all top-shelf closers and some of the many, many names out there waiting for the right team to come along and offer them a fat paycheck.

The offense is pretty set 1-9 with the additions of McCann and Reddick, but the pitching staff is still an area on the team the Astros can still improve on.

Just picture the Astros offseason ending with the additions of Holland and Sale or Chapman and Gray, can someone say, yes, please!

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Dallas Keuchel wins 3rd straight gold glove

Houston Astros Dallas Keuchel kicked off baseball's award season by snagging his third straight gold glove. Keuchel got the win by beating out other top pitchers in Toronto Blue Jays R.A. Dickey and Detroit Tigers Justin Verlander.

Per FanGraphs, Keuchel had seven defensive runs saved which tied with New York Yankees Masahiro Tanaka for the most in the American League.

Keuchel was also one of only 11 pitchers in the A.L. who had 0 errors on the year (including teammate Collin McHugh).

One of the things Keuchel has been known for throughout his gold glove reign is the way he plays the position. He isn't just worried about making a great pitch, but if you chop the ball anywhere near him, more times than naught he'll be the one making the play on the ball.

With the win, Keuchel is the first three-time winner in either league since Chicago White Sox Mark Buehrle 2009-2011.